India probably has up to 30 million undetected COVID-19 cases: Bhramar Mukherjee

New Delhi (PR):

“India probably has up to 30 million undetected cases and could have a total of 100 million cases of COVID-19 in 6 weeks….it needs to do 40 million tests as of today… I’m very proud of Delhi, I’ve been monitoring it every day and fairly confident it’s gone through its peak… India’s death rate is reassuringly low even if underreported by a factor of 10…but I’m concerned about the spread of COVID to villages and we must not let too many fall sick at the same time”: Bhramar Mukherjee, Professor of Epidemiology and Head of Department of Biostatistics at the University of Michigan.

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One of the United States’ most highly regarded epidemiologists, who has been working on mathematical models of the trajectory of COVID-19 in India, says India probably already has up to 30 million cases and in the next six weeks the total is likely to jump to 100 million. Prof Brahmar Mukherjee says the tally of 30 million includes the present official figure of 1.3 million and further 28 million undetected asymptomatic cases.

In a 50 mt interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Prof Mukherjee said the tally of official detected cases will go up to 2 million by 15th august and 3 million by the end of August. At the moment it’s just over 1.3 million but increasingly by nearly 50,000 each day.

Prof Mukerjee told The Wire there was no doubt community transmission was happening in India. She said there were clear cases where people cannot identify the source of infection and that is the definition of community transmission. In a pointed reference to government doctors and civil servants who have repeatedly insisted there is no community transmission, she said “I’d really like to know how scientists prove there is no community transmission.”

Prof Mukherjee told The Wire because India is a subcontinent it won’t have a nationwide peak but “a cascade of peaks over the next 2-3 months” as different regions peak at different times.

Prof Mukherjee told The Wire India “needs to do 40 million more tests as of today” but that may not be doable. In that case, it needs to supplement whatever level of testing is possible with extensive syndromic surveillance done door-to-door in containment zones. She pointed out that whilst India has only tested 1.2% of its population the US has done 14% and Russia 17%.

However, Prof Mukherjee said she was “ very proud of Delhi “. She said she had been monitoring Delhi every day and was “fairly confident it had gone through its peak”. She said Delhi’s reproduction rate (RO) has been under one since June 29th and today has fallen further to 0.76.

Prof Mukherjee said though she did not endorse the Indian government’s stress on the recovery rate she does believe that India’s death rate of 23 per million is reassuring. She said even if one out of ten deaths are reported and only one out of twenty cases is reported the infection fatality rate still comes somewhere between 0.4 and 1.0 and that is reassuringly low. However, she suggested the jury is still out as to the reasons that explain this. India’s age demographics are likely to be at least one explanation.

Prof Mukherjee told The Wire she was sceptical of long term projections and that’s why she did not want to project beyond six weeks. She said the reality on the ground keeps changing every day and that makes long term projections difficult. MIT in America has projected India could see over 250,000 cases each day in 2021 if there is no vaccine.

The above is a paraphrased précis of Prof Mukherjee’s interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire. Though not inaccurate it has been recounted from memory. Please watch the full interview for full details and accuracy at The Wire Youtube Channel.

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